Botswana’s 2025/26 Rainfall Outlook Promises Lush Safari Season and Vibrant Wildlife Encounters

The Botswana Ministry of Environment and Tourism, through its Department of Meteorological Services, has unveiled the much-anticipated seasonal rainfall and temperature outlook for October 2025 to March 2026. This forecast is set to shape the strategies of safari operators, hospitality providers, and agricultural planners across the country, with implications that ripple through the entire sub-Saharan travel sector. As Botswana’s iconic wilderness prepares for a season of transformation, the outlook signals a dynamic period ahead for those invested in the region’s thriving tourism and conservation industries.

According to the latest projections, the 2025/26 rainy season will begin with a measured pace in the north and west, before intensifying into a period of above-average rainfall across much of the country. This pattern is particularly significant for Botswana’s renowned wildlife destinations, where the interplay of water and landscape creates some of Africa’s most spectacular safari experiences.

For the period from October to December 2025, the forecast indicates that the northern and western regions—including Chobe, Ngamiland, and Ghanzi—will experience normal to below-normal rainfall at the onset of the season. In contrast, the eastern and southern districts such as North-east, Kgatleng, South-east, Kweneng, Southern, and Kgalagadi are expected to see normal to above-normal rainfall, with conditions improving as the calendar moves into December. Temperatures during this period are projected to remain near normal, ranging from 31°C in the southeast to 34°C in the north—a climate that supports both comfort and adventure for visitors and residents alike.

As the season progresses into November 2025 through January 2026, the outlook becomes even more promising. The entire country is set to experience largely normal rainfall, with a tendency toward above-normal levels. This is a crucial window for Botswana’s tourism sector, as the gradual greening of the landscape enhances the visual appeal of destinations like the Okavango Delta and Chobe National Park. Temperatures are expected to remain steady, providing a stable environment for both wildlife and human activity.

The heart of the rainy season, from December 2025 to February 2026, will see the rainfall pattern intensify. Regions such as Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi, Central, Kgalagadi, Kweneng, and Southern are forecasted to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Meanwhile, the north-east, south-central, Kgatleng, and south-east districts are likely to experience above-normal rainfall. Temperatures during this period will hover near normal, with values ranging from 30°C in the north to 34°C in the southwest. This combination of abundant rain and warm temperatures is expected to rejuvenate pans, rivers, and grazing lands, setting the stage for exceptional wildlife viewing and photographic opportunities.

Looking ahead to the final phase of the season, January to March 2026, the forecast maintains its optimistic tone. Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi, Central, and Kgalagadi will continue to benefit from normal to above-normal rainfall, while the eastern corridor—including North-east, Kgatleng, South-central, Kweneng, Southern, and South-east—will likely see above-normal rainfall. This late-season abundance suggests a lush and vibrant landscape, ideal for both wildlife and eco-tourism ventures. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal across the country, ensuring that conditions remain favorable for travel and exploration.

One of the key drivers behind this outlook is the anticipated emergence of a weak La Niña event between October and November 2025. With a 56% likelihood of persisting through the early summer months, La Niña typically brings wetter conditions to Botswana. This climatic phenomenon is particularly beneficial for the country’s ecosystems, as it encourages the congregation of wildlife around replenished water sources—an effect that enhances the safari experience and supports biodiversity conservation efforts.

For those planning journeys to Botswana’s premier destinations—such as the Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park, Makgadikgadi Pans, and the Kalahari—the implications of this forecast are profound. The promise of greener landscapes and excellent photographic opportunities later in the season will appeal to nature enthusiasts and professional photographers alike. However, the increased rainfall may also present road access challenges in remote areas, particularly from December onward. As a result, the use of 4x4 vehicles is strongly recommended for those venturing off the beaten path.

Despite the anticipated rains, temperatures are expected to remain near normal throughout the season. Visitors can prepare for hot but not extreme summer conditions, making outdoor activities both enjoyable and safe. This balance of warmth and moisture is ideal for supporting the diverse flora and fauna that define Botswana’s natural heritage.

In summary, the 2025/26 seasonal outlook points to a slow start to the rains in the north and west, followed by a period of increasingly wet conditions as the season unfolds. The east and south are poised for above-normal rainfall from December onward, while temperatures are set to remain stable across the country. For the travel and tourism sector, this translates into a relatively wet and lush summer season—a scenario that is sure to delight wildlife lovers, photographers, and those seeking immersive experiences in Botswana’s pristine wilderness.

This forecast is not only a boon for Botswana’s ecosystems but also a catalyst for renewed optimism within the region’s tourism industry. As abundant rains replenish the country’s pans, rivers, and grazing lands, the stage is set for a season of growth, discovery, and unforgettable adventure. For Africa’s travel sector, the message is clear: Botswana is poised to offer some of the continent’s most compelling and rewarding journeys in the months ahead.