Global Air Passenger Growth Slows in 2025 Amid Supply Chain Challenges
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a moderation in global air passenger demand growth for 2025, signaling a return to pre-pandemic growth patterns after the robust recovery seen in previous years. Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs), the key measure of air travel demand, rose by 5.3% year-over-year in 2025, a significant slowdown compared to the 10.4% growth recorded in 2024. According to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, this deceleration reflects a normalization of growth following the post-COVID surge in travel.
Capacity, measured in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK), increased by 5.2%, slightly trailing demand growth. This imbalance pushed the global load factor to a record high of 83.6%, up by 0.1 percentage point from 2024. Walsh attributed the lag in capacity growth to persistent supply chain challenges, which he described as the “biggest headache for airlines in 2025.”
Airlines faced significant hurdles in acquiring new aircraft and engines due to delays in the manufacturing supply chain. Maintenance capacity constraints further compounded the issue, leading to cost increases estimated at over \$11 billion. To meet demand, airlines extended the service life of existing aircraft and maximized seat occupancy on flights. Walsh noted that while these measures were effective in the short term, they were not sustainable, emphasizing the need for a resolution to the supply chain crisis in 2026.
Domestic air travel saw a marked slowdown, with RPKs rising by just 2.4% year-over-year in 2025, compared to 6% growth in 2024. International RPKs fared better, growing by 7.1%, though this was still a decline from the 13.7% growth recorded in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region stood out as a key driver of international traffic, with airlines in the region posting a 10.9% year-over-year increase in RPKs, the highest of any region. However, this was a sharp drop from the 26% growth seen in 2024, reflecting the normalization of travel demand as borders reopened earlier in other parts of the world.
Brazil emerged as the fastest-growing domestic market in 2025, with airlines recording an 11.1% year-over-year rise in RPKs. In contrast, the U.S. domestic market contracted by 0.6%, with load factors dropping by 1.9 percentage points, the steepest decline of any country. IATA attributed the U.S. slowdown to operational disruptions caused by extreme weather and economic uncertainty, with domestic RPKs declining by 2% in December 2025 alone.
Despite the challenges, the aviation industry demonstrated resilience, with high load factors underscoring strong demand for air travel. However, Walsh stressed the importance of addressing supply chain issues to ensure sustainable growth. “It’s vital that 2025 proves to be the nadir of the supply chain crisis, and 2026 marks a rebound,” he said.
For Africa’s aviation sector, these global trends present both challenges and opportunities. The continent’s airlines can leverage the high demand for international travel, particularly on routes involving the Asia-Pacific region, while also addressing infrastructure and operational constraints to remain competitive. As the industry moves toward stabilization, African operators have a chance to position themselves strategically in the global aviation landscape, ensuring they are well-prepared for the next phase of growth.
