Outbound trips from five African markets to reach 19.4 million by 2035, but air and hotel gaps remai
A new study launched at World Travel Market London forecasts that outbound travel from Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa will reach 19.4 million trips by 2035. The research, "Africa in Motion: The Next Great Traveller" by Skift and commissioned by the Millat Group, also projects outbound tourism spending from these five markets will rise to \$30.4 billion by 2030. However, the study warns that poor air connectivity and a shortage of affordable hotels could limit this growth.
The report highlights serious weaknesses in infrastructure across the continent. Only 19% of intra-African routes are served by direct flights, despite intra-African travel making up about 40% of international arrivals. Passengers departing African airports face the world’s highest taxes and charges, averaging \$68 per international departure, with West Africa reaching \$109.50. In 2024, African airlines earned just 90 US cents profit per passenger, compared to \$15.20 for Middle Eastern carriers. The hotel development pipeline is also skewed, with 123,846 rooms in progress but only 14 of 168 brands in the economy or midscale segments, where most future demand is expected.
Hamza Farooqui, founder and CEO of Millat Group, said, “Africans are travelling, spending money and supporting tourism industries around the world. Yet we still haven’t built a travel and hospitality system that properly serves them. We have to stop treating the African traveller as an afterthought. This is a serious market, and it deserves serious investment.” He called for better connections between cities, more accessible capital, and accommodation that matches how people actually travel.
The study found a striking contrast between Nigeria and South Africa. Although Nigeria ranks seventh of eight markets for outbound departures, it leads in spending at \$7.7 billion, about 41% more than South Africa despite generating only one-fifth as many trips. Michelle Gounden, Director of Insights at Skift, explained, “Nigeria sends a fraction of South Africa’s travellers abroad and outspends them by 41%. In this corridor the money follows family, faith and business, and anyone chasing headcounts will miss it.”
The research also shows a gap between international interest and destination knowledge. In 14 source markets, India (32%) and the UAE (29%) showed the highest forward travel intentions to Africa, compared to 16% in the US. The Middle East is now a critical link, with 28% of South Africa’s connecting traffic to Europe routed through Gulf hubs. Open questions remain about historical context and per-country breakdowns, which are not yet available. Agencies should monitor for further data to guide product development and client advice by Editor.
